87% Of Projects Gained, But The Winners Soared While Five Sank
A new analysis of project-level median PSF shifts over a two to three year hold shows a divided market: most developments climbed modestly, but five major projects shed 12 to 20% of their value.
Wed Jul 22 2026 · The Halo Journal
The Singapore private residential market has been a patient investor's game. Across 442 projects with at least eight sales in each of two windows, one spanning 36 to 24 months ago, the other the last 12 complete months, 87.3% posted gains in median price per square foot. The island median climb was 6.3%, a straightforward measure of holding power.
But the distribution was unequal. A cluster of five projects saw sharp reversals, while another eight climbed steeply. Understanding why reveals a market that rewards location and unit velocity, but punishes depth of supply and timing.
The Losers: Supply and Softness
Five projects lost ground.
GLENTREES in District 10 topped the gainers at 57.3%, climbing from S$1,277 to S$2,009 per square foot on modest turnover (eight to ten sales across the two windows). But the laggards tell a different story. MARINA ONE RESIDENCES in District 1 fell 12.6%, shedding S$272 per square foot, despite 50 sales in the earlier window and only eight in the recent one. The volume collapse signals liquidity stress; the price drop, acceptance of market terms.
THE LANDMARK in District 3 fell 14%, from S$2,828 to S$2,433 PSF, on just ten recent sales against 102 earlier. That 92-sale drop is the clearest signal: a project once liquid became hard to shift. 10 EVELYN in Tanglin (District 11) was the worst performer, down 20.1% to S$2,235 PSF, on eight recent sales versus eighteen before.
The common thread: either these were once-popular projects now facing oversupply, MARINA ONE's 50-to-eight swing suggests earlier bulk ownership or investor exits, or they hit a price ceiling the market rejected. All five are in or near the city core or prime residential zones.
The Winners: Thin Volume, Strong Gains
At the top, the winner list was dominated by suburban and mature landed estates with selective turnover. GLENTREES aside, six of the top eight gainers were estates (BRADDELL HEIGHTS, THE MAKENA, THE WATERSIDE, SEMBAWANG HILLS, FRANKEL, SELETAR HILLS, SERANGOON GARDEN). These posted gains of 20.8% to 31.4%, on volumes between nine and 97 sales per window.
SERANGOON GARDEN ESTATE (District 19) climbed 20.8%, from S$1,700 to S$2,053 PSF, on strong volume (97 to 64 sales). That retained liquidity matters; it suggests real demand, not a temporary dip. SEMBAWANG HILLS ESTATE (District 20) and FRANKEL ESTATE (District 15) both gained over 22% on solid recent turnover (33 and 26 sales respectively in the exit window), backing the thesis that suburban estates held their appeal.
The Median Truth
These are per-project median shifts, not same-unit appreciation. A project's median PSF move reflects the mix of units sold in each window, not the price path of a single flat. When GLENTREES jumped 57.3%, that may signal sales of larger units recently, or smaller units earlier, as much as genuine price growth. The method masks this blend.
That caveat aside, the picture is clear: 87.3% of projects gained, which is bullish. But the spread is wide. The five laggards fell hard enough that buyers who bought near the entry window and held face paper losses. The gainers clustered in suburban estates and outer ring locations, where supply has been more measured and end-user demand steadier.
Central projects, particularly those that saw early-window trading frenzy, have cooled. The market has rotated from density to location depth and unit scarcity.
What to Watch
For resale buyers now, the laggard list is a cautionary tale: broad supply and citycore density do not guarantee appreciation. The winner list rewards patience in established estates. A second window in six months will tell whether the laggards have found a floor or are still sinking.